Falcons 35 
Packers 14 Deserved · Falcons win 90% of replays Off day for the Packers 57% to win a fresh game, 10% with this day’s form: offense and defense both far below their usual level. Who really deserved to win?
The scoreboard says who won. We replay every NFL game 4,000 times with the way both teams actually played, and count how often they would.
Week 3, 2026
The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.
Falcons 35 Packers 14 Deserved · Falcons win 90% of replays Off day for the Packers 57% to win a fresh game, 10% with this day’s form: offense and defense both far below their usual level. Week 2, 2026
Lions 31 
Bills 41 Deserved · Bills win 94% of replays 
Panthers 34 Falcons 3 Deserved · Panthers win 87% of replays 
Bengals 20 
Texans 6 Coin flip · Bengals win 44% of replays 
Browns 23 
Buccaneers 19 Coin flip · Browns win 43% of replays Packers lucky 20 
Jets unlucky 17 Winner outplayed · Packers win 34% of replays 
Vikings 9 
Bears 3 Coin flip · Vikings win 55% of replays 
Saints lucky 24 
Ravens unlucky 17 Stolen · Saints win 13% of replays 
Eagles 24 
Titans 20 Deserved · Eagles win 74% of replays 
Steelers 3 
Patriots 20 Deserved · Patriots win 90% of replays 
Jaguars 13 
Broncos 20 Deserved · Broncos win 60% of replays 
Raiders 26 
Chargers 14 Deserved · Raiders win 69% of replays Off day for the Chargers 62% to win a fresh game, 31% with this day’s form: far below what the matchup promised. 
Dolphins 13 
49ers 35 Deserved · 49ers win 99% of replays 
Seahawks 31 
Cardinals 7 Deserved · Seahawks win 70% of replays 
Commanders 20 
Cowboys 37 Deserved · Cowboys win 79% of replays 
Colts 30 
Chiefs 33 Coin flip · Chiefs win 53% of replays 
Giants 6 
Rams 28 Deserved · Rams win 94% of replays Luckiest so far
Unluckiest so far
- Chargers0–2−0.8 wins
- Commanders0–2−0.8 wins
- Ravens1–1−0.7 wins
- Cowboys1–1−0.6 wins
- Texans0–2−0.6 wins
The biggest heists of 2025
- Browns 20, Bengals 18 · Week 18 · the Browns win 2% of replays
- Buccaneers 20, Cardinals 17 · Week 13 · the Buccaneers win 7% of replays
- Broncos 34, Packers 26 · Week 15 · the Broncos win 8% of replays
- Eagles 20, Chiefs 17 · Week 2 · the Eagles win 10% of replays
- Giants 21, Chargers 18 · Week 4 · the Giants win 10% of replays
How it works
Every play of every game goes back into the pot. Each team’s own plays from that game are drawn at random, by down and distance, into new drives and a new game, 4,000 times. Kicks, fumble bounces and turnovers happen at the rates you would expect, not the ones that happened. How often a team wins those replays is what its performance was worth that day.
The difference between that and the result is luck. A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90 on our luck index. Kicks, fumbles, drops, conversions and referee calls are valued one by one, against each kicker’s and receiver’s own record, so you can see where it came from.
The replay predicts real rematches about as well as the betting line does. It does not predict who covers next week: the market already knows. Methodology and validation